A new MRP poll of over 5,000 people (a large poll, by PLMR and Electoral Calculus) puts Reform UK way out in front in Leicestershire and the East Midlands, with Reform being predicted to make huge gains from both Labour and the Conservatives, gaining 25% of the 1st May national votes, which if repeated would give Reform a predicted 227 seats in a general election with Labour getting 180 seats and the Conservatives 130 seats, making a Reform-Conservative coalition government with Nigel Farage as Prime Minister increasingly likely.
The Tories meanwhile are set for big losses in May’s local elections and aren’t even in the running for the Runcorn by election which Reform is set to win. Indeed so bad is the situation that former Tory minister, Esther McVey, has cautioned the Tories should let Reform win the Runcorn seat.
Reform UK will “astonish everybody” by “eating into the old Labour vote” at local polls next month, Nigel Farage has said as his party celebrated a decisive by-election victory when Reform ousted Labour in a landslide win in Tameside, Greater Manchester on Thursday night. Allan Hopwood became the party’s first elected politician in the city – receiving 911 votes to Labour’s 489 to take the Longdendale ward council seat.
Labour Council leader Eleanor Wills, who was in Hattersley for the count, said: “I think there are quite a few factors for people across Tameside at the moment that are dictating how they vote in elections. A lot has changed nationally, and locally we’ve been through a bit of a tumultuous period.
The make-up of Tameside Council is however still dominated by Labour with 36 councillors out of 57. The rest of the council chamber will be made up of 13 independents, 7 Conservatives. and 1 Reform.