A shock new poll puts Reform on 445 seats, with a 240 seat majority, with all other parties together getting just 205 seats, although adjusted for the Northern irish seats this would be a slightly bigger technical majority.
In fact, the Tories would be wiped out completely with just 14 seats and would probably not survive.
Staggeringly, this turns most of the Manchester and London maps turquoise. (They’re really not kidding that Andrew Burnham may be hard-pushed to find a safe seat for Labour, in order to become an MP and challenge to be the leader of the Labour Party after Kier Starmer!).
In fact, the Tories would have less votes that the Northern Ireland Parties, less votes than the SNP, less votes than the Liberal Democrats and only double the votes of the Green Party. In fact, some pundits are suggesting that the actual vote for the Conservatives on the night could be as low as 5% as their traditional voters decide to back Reform to ensure that the Labour Party is definitely ousted, and if such a rout were to arise, the Tories could get less than 5 seats, gifting a massive 506 seats to Reform and a majority of 372 seats.
This compares with Labour’ 2024 majority 174 (now really a current 148 seats), Stanley Baldwin’s 1924 majority of 209, Tony Blair’s majority of 179, and Margaret Thatcher’s 144. The difference is that Nigel Farage will have a degree of loyalty that few except Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair have enjoyed. Nigel Farage is also heavy on Party discipline and not having fights or disagreements in public as he stated at the Reform 2025 conference. Nothing is likely to beat the Ramsay McDonald’s 1931 majority of 492 seats, something considered for many years to be technically and practically impossible to beat.
No wonder the Reform No 10 shorts with Nigel’s signature are selling like hot cakes, they could become collectables!
