A new poll by MRP, being a large poll, now puts Reform as the largest party following the next election.
Also, a dramatic change looms in Welsh politics , as internal Labour polling suggests Reform UK could unseat the party in key Senedd seats in 2026. Whilst Labour has led every Welsh government since devolution in 1999, the new proportional election system makes it easier for Reform to gain a bigger number of seats in Wales than it did in Westminster at the general election and the latest polls put Reform UK on 25%, ahead of Labour (21%) and Plaid Cymru (21%). Therefore Reform UK will likely to become the official opposition in the Senedd, if it doesn’t get the outright majority, although the next election is some time away. “The 2026 Senedd elections are expected to be Welsh Labour’s worst performance in decades. This will be a sea change in our politics,”
Reform is surging in the Polls and Nigel Farage is by far the most popular person amongst the general public for the next prime-minister.
Reform UK has denied that it would stand aside for the Conservatives and has stated that there is no prospect of the widely touted merger. This is because, according to GCHQ, voters aren’t always rational, as you cannot merge parties and expect to combine their voters. Reform UK voters are not simply disgruntled Conservatives, they are one of the more informed electors and it means that even if the Conservatives mimic the Reform agenda, it doesn’t mean they’ll pick up more votes.
Conservative and Reform UK voters simply don’t like each other’s parties that much.
Ipsos research shows that four in 10 Conservative voters in 2024 are unfavourable towards Reform UK and vice versa whereas Labour working voters are much more likely to adopt Reform, despite Reform being further right than traditionally. Many traditionally working Labour voters are moving towards Reform because they accept that Welfare and Migration cannot continue on the way that it has gone and needs to be drastically cut back and that only Reform will achieve this.
Farage has a clearly unique brand in British politics, and regularly has some of the highest favourability ratings among UK political figures, although voters are concerned that he might not be ready to become Prime Minister, although this is changing rapidly and a secondary concern is that there is a lack of quality personnel around him within Reform, although by July, Reform has said that this will change.
The upside for Reform UK is that they’re seen by public as the party of change and are no longer seen as a single-issue party and the Council elections on 1st May will change that feeling more …it was 100 years ago that the new Labour party overtook the Liberal Party and the liberals were relegated to the 3rd position and they never recovered from this. It will be interested to see which Party is most damaged by Reform and what the new shape of a Parliament will look like.